Actual play: (Mar 24, score = 484): fg, bf, bc, jc, jb (King of Clubs) if, ic (Two of Clubs)

SpiderGM Comments: Recall there are three basic options: (1) accept, (2) refuse and start a new game (3) refuse but play on, seeing what would have happened at the cost of slowing down the match.

SpiderGM Comments: I swear I didn’t peek at the unseen cards before doubling. That would be impossible since otherwise the score would be less than 475 with a 1-point penalty for every move or undo. In any case, that round didn’t last very long.

I should think that the DoubleCube would always be played by the Villain on the first or second draw if the cards are bad, and this arrangement is not particularly good.

Other than that my thoughts are weak in this matter.. Actually my thoughts are sort of weak in general but we need not dwell on that.

Without any strong feeling as to Accept/Decline, I would say accept the cube and play on, but will defer to Esteemed Scholar Bart should he choose to decline.

Should we play on, not much to do, attack Col’s 9 & 10, 10 first

Pausing from the current situation, I had more thoughts on the game as a whole.

Even the very best players don’t have above a 40% win rate at any individual game, right? Let’s be generous and say IMBug and I have a 35% chance of winning. So, unlike a backgammon game, if we were betting even money on this, no rational actor would even try, right? That’s about a single game. In a “best of N” series, the chances of winning get lower and lower as N rises.

If no one doubled, this would be a “best of 5” series. If all games were doubled, it would be a “best of 3” series. This suggests to me that the heros should perhaps offer a double even if they think the chances of winning are slightly less than the baseline rate, in this case 35%, and of course be even more likely to accept a double when offered.

Since the heroes start in a kind of desperate situation, and value doubled games, I would suggest maybe the villain should only be doubling (with a 0-0 score) when things are really going badly for the heroes — maybe down to a 15% chance of winning? That’s what it would take for the heroes to maybe refuse a double. By the same token, maybe heroes should double even with less than a 50% chance of winning, and the villain might even refuse one in that situation.

Accept double. I’m surprised the Villain even thinks the chances are less than the baseline 35% that we will win.

While the accept/reject action comes first, deciding whether to accept comes after seeing what we can do if we accept. as in…

There are no large mismatches in adjacent ranks:

Remaining: A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T J Q K
72 left. 6 7 6 3 5 5 5 8 6 3 6 6 6

53% of distributions of this many cards would be more evenly distributed, which is hardly bad luck. There are only 2 kings exposed, and only two aces.

Moves:

fg, bf, bc(super), jc, jb for a turnover in j.

If turnover doesn’t change things, follow with:

if, ic for a turnover in i.

In our search for a space, we will be down to 2 hidden cards in column i and only one in column j. There is much hope in other columns too. Further uncovering possibilities in column:

a: requires a 5 and jack,
b: requires a 7 steppingstone and an 8
e: requires a jack, and then a jack steppingstone
f: requires 6 steppingstone and an 8
h: requires a jack, uncovering last card

That’s a pretty good situation! If we do get a space, that counts as any steppingstone, of course. That means that if we do get a space, b, e, and f and h are one good card away from a turnover.

Now, peeking at IMBug’s plan: He has the same plan, but does not do the b to c adjustment. I think the adjustment makes things slightly better because it increases the chances of progress in a column that does NOT involve exposing an ace.

Bottom line: Accept the double, then fg, bf, bc, jc, jb.

Thanks for the two fives.

I should think that the DoubleCube would always be played by the Villain on the first or second draw if the cards are bad, and this arrangement is not particularly good.

Other than that my thoughts are weak in this matter.. Actually my thoughts are sort of weak in general but we need not dwell on that.

Without any strong feeling as to Accept/Decline, I would say accept the cube and play on, but will defer to Esteemed Scholar Bart should he choose to decline.

Should we play on, not much to do, attack Col’s 9 & 10, 10 first

.fg, bf, jb, jc

If no help,

.if, ib

If no help, cards please

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Pausing from the current situation, I had more thoughts on the game as a whole.

Even the very best players don’t have above a 40% win rate at any individual game, right? Let’s be generous and say IMBug and I have a 35% chance of winning. So, unlike a backgammon game, if we were betting even money on this, no rational actor would even try, right? That’s about a single game. In a “best of N” series, the chances of winning get lower and lower as N rises.

If no one doubled, this would be a “best of 5” series. If all games were doubled, it would be a “best of 3” series. This suggests to me that the heros should perhaps offer a double even if they think the chances of winning are slightly less than the baseline rate, in this case 35%, and of course be even more likely to accept a double when offered.

Since the heroes start in a kind of desperate situation, and value doubled games, I would suggest maybe the villain should only be doubling (with a 0-0 score) when things are really going badly for the heroes — maybe down to a 15% chance of winning? That’s what it would take for the heroes to maybe refuse a double. By the same token, maybe heroes should double even with less than a 50% chance of winning, and the villain might even refuse one in that situation.

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Score 484.

Accept double. I’m surprised the Villain even thinks the chances are less than the baseline 35% that we will win.

While the accept/reject action comes first, deciding whether to accept comes after seeing what we can do if we accept. as in…

There are no large mismatches in adjacent ranks:

Remaining: A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T J Q K

72 left. 6 7 6 3 5 5 5 8 6 3 6 6 6

53% of distributions of this many cards would be more evenly distributed, which is hardly bad luck. There are only 2 kings exposed, and only two aces.

Moves:

fg, bf, bc(super), jc, jb for a turnover in j.

If turnover doesn’t change things, follow with:

if, ic for a turnover in i.

In our search for a space, we will be down to 2 hidden cards in column i and only one in column j. There is much hope in other columns too. Further uncovering possibilities in column:

a: requires a 5 and jack,

b: requires a 7 steppingstone and an 8

e: requires a jack, and then a jack steppingstone

f: requires 6 steppingstone and an 8

h: requires a jack, uncovering last card

That’s a pretty good situation! If we do get a space, that counts as any steppingstone, of course. That means that if we do get a space, b, e, and f and h are one good card away from a turnover.

Now, peeking at IMBug’s plan: He has the same plan, but does not do the b to c adjustment. I think the adjustment makes things slightly better because it increases the chances of progress in a column that does NOT involve exposing an ace.

Bottom line: Accept the double, then fg, bf, bc, jc, jb.

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Blockchain has been updated, and things are not looking good :-O

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Esteemed Scholar Bart’s play of fg, bf, bc, jc, jb. is obviously superior to mine.

If no help from the turnover in Col 10 a continuation of if, ic for a second turnover.

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Blockchain has been updated, and things are not looking good :-O

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