Current decision number = 15 (see bottom of post)
Link to previous round can be found here
Previous Moves
Round 1, initial position
Xxx6s5sTh/xxxxxQs6h/xxxxxTc2c/xxxx3c2cAs7d/xxxQh7s/xx6d8d/Qd5c/xxxxKcQdJhTh9s8c3h/xxx3s2dAd4d/xxxxTd9dAc
Stock = 40
Checksum: 6+7+7+8+5+4+2+11+7+7+40 = 104

Green: I’ll start with the obvious: “jc,fj,fd” yields three in-suit builds. We have two guaranteed turnovers, including the important column 6 if we can’t clear column 7.
Red: The good cards are 2,4,5,6,7,9,J,K (i.e. allow at least one more turnover). If we wish to turnover column 4 then column 6 must wait because the 2-A in column 4 is off-suit. Therefore “jc,fh,fd” costs a turnover if we get a Four. But “df,di” costs a turnover if we get a Seven. Oh well, so much for over-analysing the situation – “jc,fj,fd” it is.
Blue: Over-analysis FTW! I prefer “df,dc,jd,fj,fj”. This leaves column 4 atomic, which would not be possible if we went the Captain Obvious option. Admittedly this exposes an Ace – but if our next card were bad, we have to expose an Ace anyway.
Actual play (decision 13, 10 Oct): df,dc,jd,fj,fj → 8 of Hearts

Green: Not much to say here. Move “di”
Blue: “di” is correct. Taking a turnover in column 9 is horrible, exposing another Ace and destroying flexibility.
Red: “di” is obvious. The real decision probably comes later when we have no more turnovers and must improve as much as possible before dealing a new row.
Actual play (decision 14, 12 Oct): di → 2 of Spades

Actual play (decision 15, 13 Oct): dh → K of Diamonds (trivial)

Somebody (sotto vote): rot13(shpx)!
Blue: Who said that? Not me! I vote “gb,gd,fg”. Two (potential) empty columns are better than one!
Green: Me neither. “gb,gd,ag,ae” is a strong alternative – as is often the case we can “sell” an empty column for a turnover plus an in-suit build. It also makes future turnovers in column 1 easier. We could build in-suit with 3s-2s in column 9 but at the cost of exposing the Ace of Diamonds. I don’t like that at all.
Red: I didn’t say rot13(shpx). I vote “gj,gd,fg,ch” – may as well build in-suit in Spades before we forget to do it later! This wins an extra turnover if the next card is a Six. If it’s not a Six then we at least retain the option of “be” next turn, which may be useful once the Kings and Jacks which are very likely to appear soon.
Actual play (decision 16, 15 Oct): gb,gd,fg → 9 of Hearts (SA and Bart go with Blue)

Blue: Great card! But we still have to take maximum advantage of our strong position. I like the simple “gf,jg”
Red: “gf,jg” for me also. I don’t like “gf,dg” because shifting a King negates the advantage of digging in a column with two face-down cards.
Green: Groupthink wins this time. With two empty columns we are not forced into a last-minute decision re columns 1 or 9. I also vote “gf,jg”.
Actual play (decision 17, 17 Oct): fa,ga,ea,ef → 4 of Hearts (Bart’ choice. SA suggested fa,af,ae, but Random Number Generator likes Bart’s choice)

Green: I vote “eb”
Blue: Not much argument. “ib,ie” is horrible, exposing an Ace just for the sake of tidying up the 3-2 of Spades. “eb” it is.
Red: Not to mention that loses the option of “gd”. I also vote “eb”. Note that we don’t lose the option of “ba” since we still have a Six in column 10.
Actual play (decision 18, 19 Oct): eb → 10 of Spades (too easy)

Green: I vote “eg”. It’s tempting to tidy up with “hb”, but then we risk polluting a column that doesn’t contain a king. Better to play long-term instead of cashing in a few in-suit builds.
Red: “hb, he, hf, hg, fh, eh, ef” for me. If the next card rot13(fhpxf) then we must take the opportunity to tidy up Q-J-T of Hearts now or never. Also, we are more likely to draw a Seven than a Three. Obviously we must break T-9 of Spades in case the next card is a Jack.
Blue: I like “hb, he, hf, hg, fh, eh, ah, af, ah”. This tidies up 7-6-5 in Spades and prepares to turn over many cards in Column 1 in the near future. The Five of Spades is useful since we are more likely to draw a Four than a Six.
Actual play (decision 19, 21 Oct): hb, he, hf, hg, fh, eh, ef → 4 of Clubs.

Let’s see what the Kolorfull Kibitzers have to say:
Red: And it’s all over, bar the shouting and last-minute tidying up before dealing the next round. I vote “ie, cb, ah”
Blue: “ie, cb” is obvious and “ah” is good since we wanna increase our chances of getting that precious 5 of Spades. But what about adding “ec”? Probably not a good idea since if we get an off-suit Ace we would rather have junk on column 3 than column 5. “ie, cb, ah” it is.
Green: There may be some point in omitting “ah” on the theory that if we manage to shift the T-9-8-7 then we automatically get an in-suit build plus turnover in column 1. But that’s probably too clever by half if you pardon the terrible cliché. I’ll go with “ie, cb, ah” and leave the too-clever-by-half analysis to SA and Bart!
Actual play (decision 20, 23 Oct): ie, cb, ah → deal cards
And that completes the round. Round 1 summary and next round coming soon!
Blue’s plan is best. Green is too simple. Red kind of distracts us with largely irrelevant information, considers the right move and rejects it. Then blue takes the correct move.
As for suspicion, Green’s response seems too simple to be part of a devious plan. But Red’s does have a lot of irrelevant stuff to distract — though he does at least consider the correct move. So as to ‘gut feel’ I’ve got my gaze on Red.
Since you guys don’t seem averse to long posts, I’ll put here my complete thinking from when I first saw the deal, before looking at the blobs.
———————-
10s and Qs are not going anywhere. You can move one 3 but not two of them. So candidates for turnovers are f, and one of d or i. Getting the 5 out of g is also a good goal for getting that space back eventually. But there are two 6s and only one 5, so it shouldn’t be hard to do
Column f is obvious first candidate since only 2 cards below. Receiving 7s are in plain view and not scarce, but the only receiving 9 is in j. We have a place to move the ace but it will use up our only 2 steppingstone.
That would be needed to clear d, but we can only move one of the 3s and i has one less card under it. On the other hand, we lose little by cleaning up column d even if we’re not going to uncover from there now.
So starting with df sounds good. We can consider and reject ch, because that 3 is valuable and we have no reason to get at the 10 in c right away. So after df, dc. Now for clearing f: jd (in-suit too),fj,fj to uncover. Good news is that c, d, g and j are atomic.
If nothing important happens, then we go to column i. We definitely do not want to put junk in column g, a potential space. So we move the 5 first, then do it with gb,ib,ih,ib.
That’s as far as I can usefully plan.
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The moves “df,dc,jd,fj,fj” have been added to the blockchain.
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Master Chi-Yuen, thank you for the spoiler blocker, it worked as I expected on the first try.
First, my unaided thoughts: Start by looking to see if we can regain the void; Need a 6, got it! Need a King, no. This also means we have two other columns that at the present time we cannot crack. Quick assessment shows we can build some serious Diamonds in Col 10. Also we can get a Turnover in Col 4 or Col 9, but not both. So I vote to start by taking the Turnover in Col 6: “jc,fj,fd”. No sense in going further until we see what the next card is.
Second, the Kolorfull Kibitzer Komments, I think I have discovered the imposter: ME!
Good job by Blue. I completely missed this line due to Ancient Eye Syndrome combined with Memory Banks Apparently Failing. I mistakenly thought the Ace in Col 4 to be a Club Ace. And, yes, I forgot that we moved the Spade Ace there as well!! So I didn’t even look. How do I do that????? The same problem has occurred in the past, but thankfully it has been a while. What makes me think this is fun?? Would I have made the more advanced play if I had accessed the situation correctly? I’d like to think so.
This self inflicted problem brings me to my other current endeavor in the 4SSS Sans ZKey arena. I am still working to see if I want to try a YouTube Channel to try to show that winning this game more than 10% of the time is possible. An anticipated problem was thought to be that I would need to drone on and on and that would cause me to miss some obvious plays. So I went to Microsoft Solitaire Collection 4Suit SS and played 25 hands at the lowest level, Expert. I did not record video or sound at this time, just talked and talked and tried to see how it felt. I did indeed catch myself making a few blunders in easy situations, but the results nonetheless were quite good, I won 19 out of the 25 hands, including a 12 hand winning streak. Now, I do not think I am that good and so I analyzed that it could be one of two things or both together. Before starting I reset all data and so Mr. Gates though I was a newbie. I believe the early games to be easier. I also felt that I did a more thorough job of looking at the cards and pointing out future possibilities as I did my version of blah blah blah. And that’s what I did not do here, a thorough job. Next up is to record practice videos and see if I can make them interesting enough to post online. I think I will do 25 hands from my current position, then reset the data again and do 25 more again as a new player. That may give us an indication as to weather we feel the early hands are easier as I assess weather to post online or not. I’ll get back to you in a few months.
But I digress.
Third after reading Esteemed Scholar Bart’s comments. As I thought he would, he found the same path as Blue.
Also, thank you, Esteemed Scholar Bart, for the adding extended version, I hope you continue this method.
Sooooooooooooo, Master Chi-Yuen, are you going to send us down a narrower path and go entirely on voting? Seems cruel to those who got it right. Perhaps you could let me change my vote to equal that of the obvious winners, Esteemed Scholar Bart and Blue. (Bart-n-Blue ??!! it will take a coupla’ days for that to leave my head)
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Yes you can change your vote. It is perfectly fine to analyse the game state independently, read the KK comments, then amend your vote if necessary (in fact this is a good way to improve your game!). The important thing is to make your final decision clear. For instance, you can start or end your comment with “BLUF: I vote move X”
In this case, I am assuming you are voting the same move sequence as Blue
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Yes, thank you.
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The moves “df,dc,jd,fj,fj” have been added to the blockchain.
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Decision 14. If anyone read my previous post carefully, you might have noted that I suggested a turnover in column i. Now I find this is not only against the unanimous advice of the Blobs, but a move that one saw fit to call “horrible”. I had felt they were very close, and with this sort of strong opinion in favor of the opposite, I’ll go with them, “di”. I had played this game for many years without myself acquiring this visceral dislike of aces, but I have been slowly getting it lately. I mean, the reason for disliking them is clear enough. There’s no information here about who the bad blob might be.
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The blockchain has been updated.
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Master Chi-Yuen and Esteemed Scholar Bart.. Hola Hola.. I have been without internet for a day or so caused by BigFuckingWindWithLotsa’Lotsa’Rain AKA Hurricane Pamela.. So drive on without me this time or wait a few days and I will catsup.
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The blockchain has been updated. You are not the only one to say fuck – someone else said fuck for an entirely different reason.
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Decision 15. I go with Blue. Red’s solution seems exactly like Blue’s but with some reversible moves that we could make later. Putting the A of spades with its two is fine, but making column J non-atomic is not a good idea. Since they’re all reversible it’s just distracting to talk about it now.
Green’s is worse. It’s a huge difference uncovering from a pile of 1 than from a pile of 3, and future spaces are critical. Green’s move is bad enough it could warrant a “sus” point or two.
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Decision 16 (apologies for the off-by-1 error) has been added to the blockchain.
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Decision 17. Two nice spaces but not much calling for spaces at this point. Still want to uncover from small piles. Simplest with least flexibility loss is fa, ga, ea, ef. Essence: Move the Q of hearts into the space to her right. Just about anything we could use a space for we can do with a single space, not requiring two, so get more info first.
Could put ten of hearts in the space and uncover column a, (fa,ga,af,ae). Receiving 8s are slightly cheaper than 7s because there’s one in column h (though covered for now), arguing against that.
Even after seeing the Kibbitzers’ unanimous move I still like mine better. It’s a 3 pile instead of a 4 pile.
I’ll stand by my fa,ga,ea,ef. Reasons: (1) Digs in a 3 versus 4 pile, and (2) uses up a receiving 8 but there is another we can likely get to. (3) We can always do jg next time if nothing good comes up, though we might want to use our space to simply things first, possibly.
No further info about the kibbitzers, as they agree. Red rejects a move I think is also very clearly worth rejecting.
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I need to get back on board here.
First to backtrack a bit, I was ready to post to Decision 14. I felt the same as Esteemed Scholar Bart to attack Col 9 even though it uncovered an ace but think “di” to be an OK move.
At the current position, Decision 15, I also go with Blue.
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Decision 16 (apologies for the off-by-1 error) has been added to the blockchain.
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Decision 17, Position 466
No such thing as too many voids unless you cannot cover them. But here one void is all that is needed to do whatever you want to do. So lets have a look-see at the next card in Col 1 while doing a spade build.
“fa,af,ae”
Note to self, there is an opportunity to make Col 9 an AtomicTurnover. Check it out before filling the final void.
Now to check out the Kolorfull Kibitzer Komments: They march in lockstep. I suppose we could all arrive at the same place by different paths. I like attacking the three facedown column first.
What say you, Esteemed Scholar Bart ?? Ahhh, this again points out our differences and how Esteemed Scholar Bart looks deeper into every move than I. He points out the almost available 8 in Col 8 as (perhaps) the deciding factor while I just think the hand just looks more orderly taking the spade in suit build rather than using the spades as vertical book ends.
So if we stick to our decisions does that mean that the Kolorfull Kibitzer outvote us with what I consider to be a second level choice; attacking a four facedown column? Lets find out, I still like “fa,af,ae”
Master Chi-Yuen, I would ask that at some point in time you give Esteemed Scholar Bart and myself your opinion on weather you prefer a turnover in Col 1 or Col 5. Thank you
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Decision 17 has been added to the blockchain.
Re the request for opinions on certain moves – I intend to give a post-mortem after the game. Obviously not during the game since that might expose the impostor prematurely 😊
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Decision 17, afterthought #1
You sort of wonder if when the GM has all three kibbitzers choose the same move, it means that the GM also favors that move.
Suppose someone appointed me lawyer for the kibbitzers to defend their move. Here is what I might say… No matter what we do here, we are going to use up a space. The jg move does that, presto. The other two moves not only give up a space but give up some “potential energy”, you might say. Clearing up column 1 uses up a receiving 7, and column 5 uses up a receiving 8. In both cases, that is one fewer rank of uncovered card that we can move. Now, in tension with keeping “potential energy” is that eventually we want to reduce all the potential energy and make suits. And when we deal, we are likely to cover things up, so tidying up underneath what gets covered is also worth something. But maybe preserving potential energy is even more important when we have two spaces. We could save the potential energy now and use it up before filling the other space, if no favorable card is uncovered. Perhaps since we have two blank columns now, the drive to make another empty column is less, so the 4-column versus a 3-column isn’t that important.
But this time I’ll stay with my original recommendation and not be moved by the lawyerly argument above. But maybe GM will eventually tell me if he sees it that way.
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Decision 17 has been added to the blockchain.
Re the request for opinions on certain moves – I intend to give a post-mortem after the game. Obviously not during the game since that might expose the impostor prematurely 😊
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Decision 18. I go with eb, like the kibbitzers. And agree with their side remarks about other things too. I should think this might qualify as a trivial move that GM could make without making it into a registered “decision”. But maybe I’m missing something.
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Decision 18 added to the blockchain – and not such a great card this time.
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Decision 18, Position 462
Red 4 on the Black 5, this game aint so tough.
We are not doing a turnover in Col 8 any time soon, so lets “Build (Crap Up) Under the King”, while we are doing the four on five thing.
“supermove he,ah,supermove bh, supermove eh”
This gives us our turnover in Col 5, creates an AtomicTurnover in Col 2, simplifies Col 1, alleviates the discontinuance in Col 8, and does an in suit heart build.. Not bad for an old Cootie with arthritis in all six knee joints.?
And as long as we are in the voting mode, I vote we uncover the Dia Jack in Col 5.
Lets see what the Kolorfull Kibitzers have to say. They all agree with Red 4 on Black 5, Simplified Version, I just felt like this was a position to do more.
Now to read Esteemed Scholar Bart’s take on the situation. WOW, I stand alone.
It might mean a trip to the ‘ol woodshed, again, but I’ll stand my ground and take my lumps like a good little critter.
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Decision 18 added to the blockchain – and not such a great card this time.
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Decision 19.
Pre-kibbitzer plan: We’ve got to end this move by putting a card in the space. I say it’s got to be the 10 from e. It gives us a third blank column, upping the chances we can get a space this round or next. The only interesting question is what if any clean up to do first. I say hb supermove, cb, ah, and then the eg finish.
We could uncover the queen in column b by moving the 4-6 to the left one column. I think that’s bad because there are already 2 receiving queens exposed, and already a homeless queen who will let us take advantage of a king, and what’s more there are 5 cards beneath that queen. Let it become a junk pile instead of a place to clear (thus the hb supermove). Column i has been one to avoid for some time because it exposes another ace. Column j remains atomic, and that’s nice.
Given hb, cb is obvious, and ah is preferred because it makes column a simpler if not atomic. Column h is a king-based suit and loves to collect more things that aren’t wanted elsewhere, like that 7 from column a.
Now, to the kibbitzers:
Of the kibbitzer’s plans, I like red best and can’t improve on it. Having committed to hb (as I had also done), the idea of swapping the queen of diamonds in h for the queen of hearts in f is a good one, improving our heart situation slightly — and not one I had thought of. Beyond that my plans added on at the end “cb” and “ah”, which are not necessary since we can do that after we turn the new card over — the hopper did this a turn or two back too. If we’re really not counting moves, simplifications like that might have some psychological benefit, but on the other hand, when comparing plans, it’s better to omit them to have a sort of “standard form” as a simpler way of comparing equivalent plans.
Red’s is better than mine every respect. Green at least turns over the right card, but resisting turning b into a garbage pile is low priority compared to what we can achieve. The fact that we CAN move that 7 from a to h is a plus, even if we don’t need to do it right now. As for blue, there may come a time in games when we risk having too many spaces and not enough access to cards hiding under other piles, but this is not one of them. So blue’s is the worst. Blue’s explanation feels the most devious because he never even addresses the question of getting the potential space. His considerations are true but he avoids the key fact. But weak evidence of being the mole.
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Red’s option (decision 19) has been added to the blockchain. One final decision before the next round.
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Decision 19, Position 461
No, not a great card.
I see no way to gain a turnover without filling the void, so let’s do a quick card count. This is not necessary in this Somewhat Simple Situation but it is a habit I’ve gotten into before filling the last void.
-A-3, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-2, 6-3, 7-2, 8-3, 9-3, 10-5, J-1, Q-4, K-2 Total-37
-6+4+3+2+1+1+0+8+7+5 = 37 37/13 = 2.8 perfect distribution
-4 5 7 J K show slight probability, especially J’s
-10 & Q got lots
Well, the simple play is “Put ‘da Spade 10 in ‘da hole”
Alternatively:
We could take a turnover in Col 2 or just make it into an AtomicTurnover by destroying Col 1. I don’t like.
Moving the 3 & 2 from Col 8 to Col 2 opens up a little play, at the expense of doing bad to Col 2. From there we could gain a turnover in Col 1. Or we could do an in suit build with Spade 10 & 9 but that gives up the turnover in Col 5 and demotes Col 5 to below AtomicTurnover status. But that line allows us to SwapOut Queens in Col’s 6 & 8 gaining a Heart in suit build……and if we push that a little further, we could put the Spade 9 back in Col 8, putting the simple “eg” back into play. Let’s write that one out and see if we like it.
.supermove hb, supermove he,hf,hg,fh,supermove eh then eg for the turnover. It just doesn’t feel like we gain enough with the Heart in suit build to justify junking up Col 2.
I don’t like any of these. Last time I went for the complicated chit, everyone else went simple. This time I go simple, just “eg” for me. Let’s see if everyone else goes rogue this time and if again I will stand alone.
Reading the Kolorfull Kibitzer Komments I seem to have covered all three ideas and chose to go with Green.
And now for my favorite part of this three stage exercise, Esteemed Scholar Bart’s comments. Very well thought out and well written as always, thank you Sir. I did see the Queen swap out to do a Heart build but did not see the easy move of “ah” once the club 8 is returned to Col 8 which simplifies Col 1. That gives me more than sufficient reason to turn Col 2 to junk and turns my simple “eg” into a blunder.
I officially change my vote, I go with Red.
And after looking at my cheat sheets for deciding who is the imposter, I see The Insect still has a large lead.
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Red’s option (decision 19) has been added to the blockchain. One final decision before the next round.
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Decision 20: No more cards to uncover. Just cleaning up before the deal. cb and ah have been on our mind for a while, and now is the time to do them. ie is a new one invited by the current card, to make an in-suit run there. Those are the only 3 I can see that don’t make things worse: cb, ah, ie.
Kibbitzers… All end with the same recommendation, same as mine. The reason blue gives for rejecting the alternate line there seems valid to me. Green’s reason for possibly omitting ah seems more far-fetched.
The final: cb, ah, ie (or, as there are no order dependencies, any of the 6 order permutations of that set of 3.)
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Round 1 is now complete. A summary of this round is coming soon to a place near u 🙂
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Decision 20, Position 448
Before going forward I need to do the GoBack thing a bit. During Decision 19 Position 461 I missed the boat on the first pass and then even when it sailed back around so I could get on board I missed something. At the point of “hb, he, hf, hg, fh” we could have brought the Heart 9, 8 from Col 1 to do a five strong Heart in suit build in Col. 8, then do fa instead of fh. I failed to see that. I think that to do so would have been a foolish thing to do due to the damage it would cause in Col 1, but I did not even see it for consideration and rejection and that is bad on my part.
Currently I would join up both Spades and Clubs and move the Spade 7 to Col 8 to strengthen chances of a turnover in Col 1
.cb,ie,ah and get some fresh cards.
Let’s see what I might have missed, Kolorfull Kibitzers? Some Blah Blah Blah but all agree.
Esteemed Scholar Bart? Agreed.
Master Chi-Yuen, will you be giving some comments before the next 10 card draw?
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Round 1 is now complete. A summary of this round is coming soon to a place near u 🙂
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